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The red line

A thousand acres, and one hundred and forty-four pounds.

It is the most quoted number in modern British farming and it is not a joke. Year one of farming this ground in-house produced a profit of one hundred and forty-four pounds, and the years since have generally been worse.

Six years

The farming, over six years.

One good line, and five that are not.

£144 profit, year one Clarkson’s Sunday Times column
<£15,000 the 2023–24 year Clarkson’s Sunday Times column
−£5,000 the 2024–25 year Clarkson’s Sunday Times column
~1,000 acres of Cotswold brash Public record
15–45cm of soil over limestone The farm
30% of the wheat lost to drought in 2025 The farm
Four reasons

Why a thousand acres does not make money.

Thin soil, first. Fifteen to forty-five centimetres of stony brash over limestone holds almost no water, and in a dry May the crop stops. That is not bad management; it is geology, and no amount of nitrogen fixes it.

Then input costs, which moved by more than fifty per cent in a single year within recent memory while grain prices did not. Then the withdrawal of the Basic Payment Scheme, which was for many arable farms the difference between a profit and a loss and which is being phased out entirely.

Then weather, which is not a footnote. In 2025 drought took thirty per cent of the wheat and forty per cent of the barley here, and the durum came in under two tonnes a hectare against an expected six. One year in five now does something like that.

And then the structural point: the growing is the cheapest part of the chain. A tonne of malting barley leaves this farm at around a hundred and eighty pounds and comes back through a brewery worth twenty to forty times that. Everybody in the chain after the farmer captures more than the farmer.

The gross margin

Where the money actually goes on a hectare of wheat.

LineRoughlyNote
Seed £75/ha Certified seed, at commercial rates
Fertiliser £310/ha The line that moved most, and fastest
Agrochemicals £190/ha Two fungicides, a herbicide stack, a growth regulator
Machinery and labour £380/ha Owned, contracted, and depreciating
Drying and storage £45/ha More in a wet harvest, sometimes much more
Rent, or the rent it would let for £190/ha Ignoring this is how farms lose money quietly
Total cost ~£1,190/ha
Output at 8 t/ha and £190/t £1,520/ha A good year
Output at 5.5 t/ha and £190/t £1,045/ha A dry year. That is the loss, in one line
What the number actually bought.
The honest bit

What the number actually bought.

One hundred and forty-four pounds is a terrible return on a thousand acres and an extraordinary return on a piece of television.

It is the number that made the programme work, because it is checkable, unflattering and instantly understood by people who have never been near a farm. It is the number that gets quoted in the House of Commons. It is, in a real sense, the founding asset of everything else on this board.

None of which helps anybody else farming a thousand acres of thin ground. That is the part that gets lost when the number is used as a punchline.

£144
the number
~1,000
acres
5
other rows on the board
The reading

And the thing the red line does not mean.

It does not mean farming is a bad business run by fools. The people who farm this ground properly — Kaleb, Charlie, and about half a million others — are extremely good at a job with almost no margin in it.

It does not mean the answer is to stop farming. The worst ground here earns more out of production than in it, and that is a real finding, but the thousand acres as a whole are farmed because farming them is what the whole enterprise is about.

What it does mean is that any farm business that intends to survive needs something downstream of the field gate. This board is six versions of that sentence.

What the farm actually earns.

The full numbers, field by field and year by year.

Wondering

What people actually ask.

The two questions this page gets most, answered without a support ticket.

The words are ours. The brands are not, and nothing here is licensed.

The cast page names every person and what they are actually responsible for, which is not always what the programme implies.

Next along the route

How a farm actually hedges

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